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Bitcoin Volume Profile Analysis Crypto Signals

Bitcoin Volume Profile Analysis Crypto Signals
Bitcoin Volume Profile Analysis Crypto Signals

Bitcoin Volume Profile Analysis Crypto Signals okay we are starting 3 2 1 and we are live hey friends how you doing script Oh Ernie and today is a wonderful day it is Friday September 6 boy I cant believe were already this far into September that much closer to the end of summer just two more weeks until the calendar end of summer I think here in the Northeast Labor Day is considered the defacto end of summer but I like to stretch it out as long as I can in my mind I hate to see the winter coming hate to see the cold months coming hate to see all that pain and misery what am I talking about its not that much pain of misery its just inconvenience an inconvenient truth that we must we must endure change thats right so today todays article is on analyzing change analyzing the change in the attitude of Bitcoin and possibly other cryptos but you know Im focused mainly on Bitcoin because thats thats the big guna and lets see what do we have here the chart I have behind me is Bitcoin showing a descending triangle thats the major pattern that were in right now this is a daily chart showing almost complete almost two years of data almost two full years of Bitcoin its ups and downs including over here to my right to your left the big bubble and then if I just get my head out of the way the what I call the mini bubble minime is it a bubble or is it a is it a descending triangle is this exhibiting the pattern of a bubble or not I mean we have the exponential rise we have the bull trap of the beer Trappe we have the first blow off top we have the secondary blow off top we have d decreasing cat dead cat bounces so far so far this is following the anatomy of a bubble to the T now but now we have what could rightfully be ascertained or analyzed as a descending triangle and descending triangles have a whole bunch of different stats attributed to them all depending on the context you cannot just take it and say I want you descending triangle therefore it will do this thats bull now depending on where we are whether the descending triangle is through is the culmination or the consolidation from an uptrend or downtrend thats very different the position that were in where we are where prices and in terms of its relative position to the apex of that triangle are all very important but even more important is where the volume profile is showing where the market has decided that value exists and value dont exist or doesnt exist value in cording according to the market exists wherever you see a high value node or one of these big blue protrusions here right now we conceived by the dark blue area the vast majority of that volume is well below where prices right now and the biggest part of that volume is down here in this what I guess would be this accumulation phase when price get down to around 3, 300 and the best that I can say about that is that because that volume node is so big it seems to me that there were a lot of people that were anticipating that this was a damn good time to add to either to add to you lungs or to get the hell out I think it was both which was more I dont know either way that would be considered I mean if price does eventually come down to that 8, 000 or 6, 000 area theres a darn good chance for it to then skip jump over the pond there the the big volume will jump over the well back down to that area only because it acts like a huge gravitational force thats just the way it is you can accept it or deny it Im not saying its going down there Im just telling you how to read a volume profile chart now we have three such nodes all within the dark blue area the dark blue area being a high value node or this is where 70 or 67 of all the activity over the past two years has occurred were in the nosebleed area nothing nosebleed area but sort of the extended area the nosebleed area is above twelve thousand two hundred or so theres thats the nosebleed area way up there way up thats nosebleed territory so thats what we have here we are and and you know the interesting thing is that with this big descending triangle a lot of activity has happened there yet it we have not accumulated the kind of volume that we have below those areas you dont find that significant I do I do to me thats telling me that theres still this huge gravitational force trying to ball pit go down trying to get it down there but its resisting it wants to go up its resisting huge huge resistance point here or support point at at about 83 8400 huge huge table of support but at the same token theres a huge bit of resistance here at about a little bit above 12, 000 so Im looking at this and Im thinking well there is a possibility that we break up out of this ascending triangle and in fact if you look back historically at a cent or descending triangles over forever on all assets everywhere there is a little bit better than 60 chance that we will break to the upside and a slightly lesser chance that we will break to the downside thats a very very generalized context of all descending triangles however heres another very broad statistic that those those breakouts to the upside do not achieve the full potential of a measured move a measured move being what is the potential of one of these triangles typically than the measured move is the height of the the short leg of the triangle which is about 5, 000 points so what was saying is that the move would be five thousand from ninety four hundred from the base some people will measure it from the breakout point but neither case that would be way way up here up around fifteen five sixteen thousand or to the downside that could be down here around four thousand either war that is the potential that is the measured potential thats what people call the measured move there is a higher chance that will go up then go down but also if we go up theres a lesser chance of reaching the potential then if we go down so in other words even though theres a lesser chance of going down once we go down theres a higher probability that youll reach the potential of the pattern then if you had gone up hope that makes sense those are those are the stats over literally hundreds of thousands maybe even half a million different descending triangles across all assets its a behavior that is repeatable it has statistics now will that happen here when we look at the context you know the context you know kind of fills in all the checkboxes it says yeah you know were right there it looks like to me that theres a you know I look at at this profile here and we are it looks like price wants to go to the edge of this value you know this this sort of hill here it looks like thats where it wants to go but were sitting here on this big node so if we zoom in we get a different view if we zoom in a little bit say go to four hours and we just look at the at the triangle maybe expand it out a little bit just look at the triangle and we can see that a lot of that extra movement up here okay now see now the high value node is almost the entire width of this triangle alright lets lets just take that whole triangle out of the you know the whole triangle lets just fill up this picture so we get a much better much more clear view of what were dealing with here expand it a little bit more alright so now we have a volume profile thats its a little bit choppy we see lots of areas of high value and high value nodes where where traders are finding value or attractiveness or levels of comfort where they want to be theyve accumulated a lot of trades there and then there are areas where are like nogo zones and one of those nogo zones is you know up around here at 12, 000 144 thats why Ive picked it as a potential target because it doesnt look like it will go much before there I mean a secondary target might be 11, 500 another target could be you can see that we have huge resistance that just above 11, 000 which happens to coincide with the upper hypotenuse of this triangle which might call a trendline huge resistance there and were reaching for it if we break through there if we break through there and enter this volume node I see us quickly moving up to eleven thousand three hundred and Jane so if we break through if we break on through to the other side let me get my fat head out of the way see there it is this and within this bigger triangle I want to point out that we have a smaller symmetrical triangle that we just broke out of all right so its kind of a fractal we rose up into it consolidated you might call that a pennant and solid ate it and then broke out again and the potential for that it happens to coincide right about where you would meet the bigger triangle so thats kind of interesting thats an inflection point when we get up if we get up to and break 11, 000 theres gonna be a whole lot of finger crossing going on are we gonna break through and if we do I think that we can quickly come up to 11 3 if we do that I think that you know its possible to you know jump up to the next level but typically what happens is well want to hang out there a little bit and consolidate around that high value node that has been established as an area where traders like to be perhaps make that a little bit more well defined and typically what happens more often than not is that well move down and to this next volume note some people will say we were testing the top side of the triangle I dont look at it that way I say it looks like were gonna come back through that volume well and hang out in this other area of high value or demand for traders and maybe fill that out a little bit more and then we see where were gonna go of course once we do that once we make that extra move this is no law you know that the triangle starts taking a different shape right because you have to sort of connect the dots here right now we have three dots connected on the top two at least two on the bottom which would give you from a bull Kowski point of view on the pattern site.com all the elements for a fullyformed triangle but what happens if we move up and then make a newer you know it will be a lower high if we only go up to here we would have to we would have to break twelve thousand 125 to make a higher high thats thats a lot to ask I you know I dont see that happening right now I this theres nothing there is no catalyst for that I mean but who needs a catalyst all you need a simit sense I dont believe the sentiment is there either so I just dont see it happening Chris Cory says this double bubble pattern looks very very similar to Bitcoin from November 2013 through August 2014 large bubble followed by a smaller one for both forming a long term triangle very interesting its a good observation all eyes says will you short the first attempt at cracking 11 K or any or do you see this as the current top before we push back a bit so let me just say that when I look at these bigger charts and Im analyzing from volume profile I want to use that as as a secondary analysis after I have taken the signals from pattern cast pattern cast is going to put me in the best position giving give me the best odds at that particular point in time that context in in the pattern that bitcoin is set up that it has measured over its entire life and recognizes whether or not what are the odds of me going up or down from that particular point if pattern cast gives me that signal and then Im in it then I start looking at volume profile and seeing well what is the extent and does that make sense right and I would say that 99 of the time pattern cast signals make complete sense in the context of the volume profile but they give you more context they give you more understanding of whats actually happening by looking at that signal I mean its its just a fantastic combination and thats because pattern cast deals with nothing but statistics it deals nothing but patterns that it finds in its head these are patterns that you see these are patterns that it sees from a pattern recognition techno technology a which could be one of hundreds of thousands of thousands of different permutations within a four day period its kind of got this myopic vision it sees it sees it here and then goes back in time to do do I see that pattern other places oh here and here is here and here in here it says this looks like its setting up like that and every time its done that should it reach this level of that level this is whats likely to happen thats what patterns even cast us so I dont have to look at trend lines and moving averages and all this other bull crap Im looking at data on what actually happened what were the actual odds of it moving up or down should this scenario fulfill itself that is the real value of this signal service and then by looking at then that gives me the context to look at volume profile and it all starts making sense I can see where the supply and the demand are what would the odds and then I can start looking at that and working back maybe even looking after Ive looked at that after all that analysis seeing what actually happened and where people found demand and no demand and then maybe start looking at the news and seeing what happened in the news and see how that kind of fits into that does it is there a story that can be made there where most people will do it the other way around and volume profile is giving me not a view backward like most technical analysis but its given me a view forward of where the potential is and where the likely behavior of price movement will be all I says I think the fundamentals were a lot stronger for September are long of Custody solutions financially launching this month also yeah on the 23rd we have this backed ETF is that what it is no that was a what was this other ETF the Vanek ETF I dont even know that that has officially been given a go or they did they find like a loophole or something to be able to introduce an ETF without permission from the SEC or the blessing of the SEC I dont know I guess well see I guess well see nobody knows all right lets zoom in on this a little bit more get rid of my fat head so there you can see the the pennant that formed the breakout from the pennant nice little move seemingly reaching for for this upper trendline actually its reaching for a volume profile well not the trendline the well the weather the trend lines just happened to be coincident with with Wells and with Wells basically so the the trend lines are kind of like a way to analyze things to find out where the wells are if you dont have the wells but not as good as seeing the volume profile buoyant profile has given me the exact place where support and resistance DWO 1 1 1 wants to know when will the first all coin signals come we are working on that Im hoping tonight if not tonight maybe tomorrow night were putting together the data finding data for any of these signals across multiple exchanges that goes back far enough is very different is very difficult once we find exchanges that have the data then we have to get hold of their API and plug that into our aggregator so that we can aggregate multiple exchanges and so we have data from multiple exchanges on any one coin that were going to analyze thats a principal key thing that we do to make sure that we have accurate representative data of that particular coins performance across the globe so thats what were doing right now were trying very hard to find which exchanges we can put in there obviously we would like to find the data in the exchanges weve already developed plugins for their API but if we have to go outside and find other exchanges then we have to develop the plugin for that API plug that into our aggregator and add it to the mix I mean it would be wonderful if we had plug plugins for every single exchange out there then we could just easily just say okay give me that data that data that data that data and just combine it all and then we could see it right away but were intelligently trying to choose those domains that have the most historical data so thats where we are so its very possible and we have Ive accumulated data and from multiple exchanges for litecoin aetherium and ripple thats what were working on right now and it is very possible you could see signals tonight or tomorrow night with that definitely by the weekend for sure absolutely but thats where were at right now well see we can only consider any particular coin if it has enough data across enough exchanges that is our criteria I mean that that is that is the absolute see because were not like your normal service that tries to look at just the past 14 bars and then try to make some sort of call from that we need lots of data so we can accumulate the statistics so that the patterns can be found by pattern cast by our pattern cast record and recognition technology so that it can give us some more sound footing sound statistical evidence of where price is likely to go based on past behaviors thats how we roll who will I be adding junto coin no stop that whoa going back to 2014 well thats fine going back to 2014 but show me the exchanges that have that data if you can provide that then well put it in there 2014 would be awesome but we need exchanges that have data going back down to 2014 if you can find me at least two preferably three we would like for all right but two we can live with three is what we would rather have four is ideal for or more if you care to see the double bubble comparison between two three yeah maybe later you can go to the just discord and show me that so by the way if youre not already a member of our discord theres an invite back down in the description and you can join our discord into the general air you know the public area CCI trade room how you doing where can I purchase the Bitcoin hat like the one you were wearing this is not a Bitcoin hat this is a Boston Red Sox hat and a lot of people mistake it for a Bitcoin hat so you can get one of these probably at mlb.com I guess actually this is a much older one this is a really nice highquality one this is one that players would have actually have worn I know that BitFenix is a long lasting exchange that doesnt but thats only one exchange and they dont the exchange report back to me I need multiple exchanges so a bit stampin bit tracks have the longest history yeah and we go to they but they dont have all the coins ian believe it or not even some of the more popular coins they dont have the data going all the way back its frustrating very very frustrating data is one of the most frustrating elements of analyzing cryptocurrency because of this unregulated nature all right but they are coming we are making huge progress we already have weve been testing them out the signals have been great we just want more data to protect us you everybody so that we have the best possible service on the planet right now we have the I believe the best Bitcoin signal service period bar none and you can get into it right now look I have a deal I have a deal right now that Im starting until my birthday October 5th youll see that we have the price for a Bitcoin at 1295 for a yearly which i think is a damn good price but if you use the coupon code crypto you get 400 off that price and if you pay in crypto I will rebate you another 200 so you can actually get that whole yearly which will include Bitcoin and all the other alt coins that were adding for 695 thats a great deal because its a great deal considering that just about any one of the calls could have made that entire year subscription back for you so again the the coupon code crypto will get you four hundred clams off and if you pay in crypto because we like crypto anybody that pays me a crypto I take that and I put it into my Kraken account and I trade it I dont necessarily put it back into the business the majority people pay with credit card that goes back into the business and allows us to do all the other stuff but anybody that pays me a crypto I put that in Kraken and I and I trade it murica says remember USD pairing came late on many exchanges sites before was mostly in Satoshi BTC thats a good point its a very very good point were trying to keep our analysis in terms of USD but let me let me talk to my partner and see whether or not that makes a lot of sense because Im not sure exactly you know I guess Id have to really pull most traders and see what they want all I says he paid in crypto thats cool and so that that money I can guarantee you is sitting in crackin right now in this trade I am long I am now long but thats not necessarily a in official position although it is the last trade that we made was long now on our on our traditional side it has been going off the hook holy crap we had a trade in heating oil one contract would have made you 5, 000 one contract 5, 000 Audrey how you doing Ernie you should buy a ton of Red Sox hats double the price and sell them if they want to believe that BTC hats its not your problem its pretty good its pretty close isnt it this is a highquality hat by the way its old its all cotton you can see its very very well bleached by the Sun yeah and BTC is up to ten thousand nine hundred do some calculating here yeah so definitely breaking out of this triangle this pennant lets see its its total measured move would probably be 10 3 to 10 8 so 500 points were at 10 so 11, 000 seems like the measured move 11, 000 seems like the measured move that seems to be the the potential of this breakout out of this smaller triangle this pennant well see if that holds murica says that litecoin PTC on bit tracks charts start from March 7th 2014 same on pollen acts but BTC painting only USD is a lot after and was in USD T feather appearing but BTC peering only USD is a lot after and was in USD tether yeah well take a look at that I want to make sure that the signals are valid for a lot of people you know because when you trade most people want to trade in terms of a stable coin Adam says eleven thousand 250 well good Audrey says Ive noticed when tether goes up BTC follows shortly after have you noticed this yeah thats a general consensus amongst a lot of people so a lot of people think that this is really just pumping up and I agree I think that virtually all of these moves that these strong moves up are Wales pumping the price up absolutely absolutely all right all right I think were good from here we have we have our analysis strong resistance at 11, 000 were going to wait for our next Bitcoin signal that should be out tonight last nights Bitcoin signal there was really nothing that we saw in here so indicating this as a matter of fact the only signal it showed was if it moved down sharply then there was a continuation move going down the a couple of nights ago it showed both a sharp move up and down but so this pattern is a new pattern that pattern cast did not recognize leading me even more to believe that this is a manufactured push all eyes notice when BB or by Nance coin goes up also BTC usually follows or about three months for about three months now Finance will pump up five to seven percent then BTC follows yesterday by Nans pumped up over six percent hmm you know it might be interesting to also do some some arbitrage between the the coins and so that we can see these types of relationships and whether or not they actually exist I havent been doing any of that recently I think you can do that with trading view but I need to upgrade it to the next level the pro not the pro Im on the pro level I have to be on the next level what is the next level account in billing Im on the pro level if I wanted to upgrade my plan what do I go to theres the Pro Plus what does the Pro Plus give me gives me more charts per tab more devices at the same time more save charts custom time intervals entered a custom range fires intraday nabob 12 customized chart types 50plus smart drawing tools yeah they all get that what extra do I get doesnt say I just get more of stuff I dont get like really any extra capability because what Id like to do is be able to put in there you know to assets like like coin versus Manero you know and then be able to sail a coin monaro so that I can get a notional value difference between the two and then track that see the relationship between the two but so Im looking at the the plans for a trading view so what does premium this premium give me anything whooptydoo no so I dont know if the trading view can do a difference between them so I can look at an arbitrage situation where I can compare and this is all going back to the comment that BB has financed coin has some kind of correlation to to Bitcoin and I would be able to see that if I were able to plot one against the other on the chart but I dont see custom indicator indicates indicator in Cuba indicators compare symbols says it can compare symbols but I dont know what that means little doesnt tell me whos done it better this year pluggable compare them sidebyside Oh see thats side by side who wants to see I want to see on top of one another sidebyside comparison does bull we want to see the notional difference between them Im yeah I dont see any you know trading views really good up to a point then it sucks yeah whatever so with the Pro Plus plan I get Renko Kaji line break point figure charts I dont want any of those indicators second based intervals what does that mean cray charts with the second five so so you can get seconds intervals I dont care about that either give me something I care about well I guess I have to go to a more professional back to Bitcoin Adam says best scenario from markup Marcus is to pump to 16 K and trap many lungs and then dump to 6 K okay lot of looking to buy the a th the alltime high breakout oh good for them theyre gonna be waiting for a while as far as I can see Ernie do you ever recommend tethering your BTC my thought is to tether some BTC after the next break big break out as we can assume a significant drop will occur double whammy short it in tether I I just I just go to u.s. dollars in Kraken its pretty simple just short ethereum on bitter bit max for a hedge oh okay NPC you can plot difference in TV whats TV I have no idea what in oh you can plot the difference in trading view you can plot the difference in trading alright lets try that intraday spread you requested an intraday spread symbol that is available only to Pro Plus see they dont see they dont say that so you have to be a pro plus and premium user you will now be switched to a daily interval spreads for intraday charts are calculated based on oneminute bars and then recommended in the selected interval this approach is the only correct one but requires significant server power this means we cant give spread charts for free to everyone if you do intraday spread analysis consider subscribing to Pro Plus or premium services okay so theres my answer I can do it if I go to Pro Plus so I have to go to Pro Pro Plus Im gonna upgrade I dont want to buy a whole year of Im gonna go monthly next hey pal all right so Im upgrading right now to Pro Plus on trading view stepping up in the world well use PayPal credit agree and pay I like PayPal credit because if I pay off within six months I dont get any interest what a friggin deal all right I am upgraded now so lets see if I can do beat T lets see xbt USD for crackin go to the full feature chart and then compare that to BnB USD finance alright what is this showing me it doesnt look like its showing me anything different than just xbt USD I call I get ripped off I probably just dont know what the hell Im doing Ill figure this out later oh you have to put a plus why would you put a plus if youre looking for the difference it still doesnt show me anything thats cuz um its because by Nance is way under priced so Id have to have some kind of multiplier to get it at the same notional value thats what I have to figure out what is the multiplier for finance to get it at a similar notional value do I have to multiply it by ten thousand can I do that and so not plus would be minus and then can I multiply it by ten thousand yes I can all right maybe ten thousand was too much lets try a thousand so now we have the difference here between Bitcoin and by Nance coin and we can see when ever there is a stark change between the two what I did was I added Ill have to check to see whether or not that multiplier makes sense but I think it does because for the majority of time here from 2018 through 2019 at Hubbard right at zero so that means that the if the notional value was at zero that means that with the multiplier of a thousand done by Nance I was getting approximately an equivalent value of by Nance to two Bitcoin and so now here what this shows is that Bitcoin has underperformed by Nance for a while until July and now Bitcoin is starting to catch up to by Nance you see how that works that dip theyre showing Bitcoin underperforming relative to by Nance and then by Nance then Bitcoin regaining some of that under performance over the past two months a month and a half now thats thats pretty cool so no Adam you dont do the plus you have to do a minus because youre trying to subtract the difference between them and you want to tract you want to track only the difference between the two coins that will give you the relative or the whats called the differential notional and thats showing you the relationship between those two coins the hard part is finding the multiplier that will give you approximately equal value from a notional point of view equal dollar value or Bitcoin value or whatever so that they come in line with one another and here it appears that if I multiply by Nantz by one thousand why would I do that because by Nantz is probably priced around a dollar or so or maybe something a little bit under a dollar all right thats what Im guessing or under ten dollars finance coin is priced at oh its at twenty two dollars Wow so so maybe the multiplier should only be 500 its so hard to try to figure out what the equivalent notional value would be but thats thats what I would do I think right here is fine because like I said for a long period of time we were right at zero notional value so a thousand seems to work okay Chris Cory says compare feature allows you to overlay different charts on top of each other but thats not what I want to see I want to see when you do that what happens when you subtract one from the other so I can see the difference the difference is what I want to analyze not one over the other one over the other will never tell you anything trust me Ive been doing statistical arbitrage for decades thats how you do it Audrey says I use an app called the bit screener its a good tool for arbitrage Ill check that out thank you very much well allwise I just gave you my analysis on the difference between finance and Bitcoin like I said recently by Nance was over outperforming Bitcoin from the beginning of 2019 to 2 July now for since July Bitcoin has been outperforming finance you can see that by the shape of this curve take care re the breakouts Ive noticed yes is exactly that from about April to July alright so this so this chart then is making sense to what Im saying here well in order to see whether or not by Nance coin is a forwardlooking mechanism to a pump in Bitcoin we would probably have to go and do a greater analysis about what has happened whether or not there is a time differential to alright okay bring the ugly head back on here I am so will do more of this type of analysis as we as we go forward and I think a lot of people will get a lot out of this all right now that I have the Pro and I can do a notional difference I have to come up with with good notional multipliers so that they put them on par with on at one another and and then also find out whether or not those notional multipliers are accurate okay thats all I have for now I want everybody to go down click the like button share this with your social media and if you are not yet part of the pattern cast Bitcoin or crypto signals you have until the basically the end of this month to take on this deal that Im offering use the coupon code crypto to get 400 off paying crypto and Ill rebate you another 200 off that will be 600 off of that price so for 695 youll have bit coin and crypto signals for an entire year for an entire year youll have access to our trade room where we provide firstclass worldclass support and mentoring as well as daily seminars so its really a great value weve got about a hundred and fifty people in there right now they came in while I was on vacation theyre all so far were eight out of nine oh Im sorry were nine out of ten trades nine out of ten with an average move of 500 or 500 BTC USD average nine out of ten tell me that you wouldnt have made enough money to pay for three subscriptions within that period within two weeks and I expect that to continue because pattern Castors is the real deal all right so Ive got to say thank you very much I will probably be on tomorrow see you next article and all that jazz

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